![]() The poll of poll seeks to give an answer to the most important question of all - the direction of travel of public opinion over time. It’s an important piece of work for us, and a lot of thought has gone into it. It is drawn up by Sky Election Analyst Will Jennings and Sky data and elections editor Isla Glaister and supported by a team of Sky data scientists and designers. ![]() This sort of analysis is only available through a "poll of polls", which takes data from every single pollster that is asking voting intention questions and signed up to the industry standards body, the British Polling Council. How does one pollster, with its (usually) consistent methodology, move over weeks and months? Is there a discernible pattern from a number of different pollsters over a matter of days? Those of us with our noses pressed firmly up against the glass don’t want to wait for this. So the best way to use opinion polling reliably requires patience - and a lot more data. No doubt I will at times be guilty of this, but it will also put you at risk of over interpreting a single outlier poll.Įvery poll has a margin of error of two or three percentage points either side - this isn’t just ignorable small print, it's a big challenge for all of us and a warning for all of us not to impatiently rewrite political narratives on the basis of a single number change. There is a tendency for political professionals to seize on every one of the polls, magnify every percentage point of movement, and draw dramatic headline conclusions. Which pollster will be closest, which method is the right one, who should you look at? Those questions will always be unanswerable until the morning after election day, with the past only a broad guide to the future. ![]() Today Sky News launches its own, authoritative version of one of the most important indicators available ahead of a general election next year - our live poll tracker.Īlmost every day between now and polling day there will be new opinion polls by a clutch of different pollsters, each using different methodologies and all asking who voters will support on polling day.
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